Risk of pancreatic cancer in glycemically defined NEW-onset diabetes: a prospective cohort study
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Increased 3-year incidence of pancreatic cancer following new-onset diabetes (NOD) observed in retrospective studies needs prospective validation. It is unknown if incidence varies by race/ethnicity. METHODS: In a prospective, observational study using active real-time surveillance of electronic health records we identified 18,838 adults ≥50 years of age with NOD defined by glycemic criteria (GNOD). In this interim analysis, we report 3-year Kaplan-Meier estimates of proportion diagnosed with pancreatic cancer following GNOD (absolute incidence (95% Confidence Intervals)) and associated Standardized Incidence Ratio (SIR) by race/ethnicity; overall 3-year incidence of pancreatic cancer adjusting for racial distribution of incident diabetes in the United States; and interval between GNOD and pancreatic cancer diagnosis. RESULTS: During median follow-up of 2.3 years, 82 pancreatic cancers have been diagnosed (60% male, mean age 71±8 years). The 3-year estimates for proportion diagnosed with pancreatic cancer (95% CI) and associated SIR (95% CI) by race/ethnicity were: non-Hispanic Whites (n=6,518) 0.84% (CI: 0.60, 1.07) (SIR 6.4 (CI: 4.8, 8.4)); Hispanics (n=5,984) 0.40% (0.20, 0.60) (SIR 4.2 (2.6, 6.3)); African Americans (n=2,192) 0.37% (0.07, 0.67) (SIR 2.4 (1.0, 5.0), and Asian/Pacific Islander (n=3,360) 0.22% (.06, 0.39) (SIR 3.0 (1.4, 6.0). Overall, race-adjusted 3-year pancreatic cancer incidence was 0.62%. On average GNOD occurred 8 months prior to clinical…
How strong is the evidence?
Evidence Hub reads this as a cohort study, done in people. Its evidence level is 3 of 5 (Moderate · trial / cohort / secondary analysis). Trials without a large randomized design, cohorts and secondary analyses give moderate evidence. Reported size: 18,838 participants or records.
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