Opportunities and Challenges of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction for Primary Prevention Using Machine Learning and Electronic Health Records: A Systematic Review
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the foremost cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) have demonstrated substantial potential in augmenting risk stratification for primary prevention, surpassing conventional statistical models in predictive performance. Thus, integrating ML with Electronic Health Records (EHRs) enables refined risk estimation by leveraging the granularity and breadth of longitudinal individual patient data. However, fundamental barriers persist, including limited generalizability, challenges in interpretability, and the absence of rigorous external validation, all of which impede widespread clinical deployment.
METHODS: This review adheres to the methodological rigor of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) and Scale for the Assessment of Narrative Review Articles (SANRA) guidelines. A systematic literature search was performed in March 2024, encompassing the Medline and Embase databases, to identify studies published since 2010. Supplementary references were retrieved from the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) Web of Science, and manual searches were curated. The selection process, conducted via Rayyan, focused on systematic and narrative reviews evaluating ML-driven models for long-term CVD risk prediction within primary prevention contexts utilizing EHR data. Studies investigating short-term prognostication, highly specific comorbid cohorts,…
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Evidence Hub reads this as a systematic review, done in computer models (in silico), not in people. Its evidence level is 5 of 5 (Very low · case / narrative / animal / in vitro / in silico). Case reports, narrative reviews, and animal, cell or computer-model studies give the weakest evidence for human health.
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