Beyond Techno-Economic Diffusion: A Systematic Review and Socio-Technical Audit of Agent-Based Models of Rooftop Solar PV Adoption
Abstract
Agent-based modelling (ABM) is increasingly used to analyze rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) diffusion, yet it remains unclear how existing models operationalize socio-technical mechanisms such as peer effects, grid constraints, policy uncertainty, and energy justice. This systematic review evaluates ABM architectures for rooftop PV diffusion through a three-layer evidence design: a mapping of 876 publications (2000–2025), a core set of 101 ABM-related studies, and structured coding of 50 focal ABMs using the Spatial–Economic–Mechanistic–Policy–Justice (S-E-M-P-J) framework, which tests whether mechanisms are formally implemented rather than narratively invoked. The coding reveals an uneven architecture: behavioural mechanisms are nearly universal (96%) and policy representations common (82%), yet only 2 of the 50 focal studies (4%) combine architectural embedding of justice-related variables with justice as a core evaluation criterion, and justice remains computationally isolated from the models’ economic, spatial, and policy machinery. The field shows signs of an integration plateau: the median model implements three of the five dimensions, unchanged for a decade, and only 3 of the 41 policy-implementing models treat policy as time-varying. Current models answer “how much and where”, but rarely “for whom”. The review distils a methodological agenda into a minimal justice-reporting standard for adoption ABMs.
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