Diffusion of Innovations:Modeling, Estimation, and Normative Developments(CEIBS Working Paper, No. 044/2020/MKT, 2020)
Abstract
Understanding the adoption process of a new product and modeling the resulting diffusion pattern over time has been of great interest to both academicians and practitioners for the past 50 years. The keen interest in modeling diffusion of innovations would continue to grow in the new digital economy also, perhaps more vigorously given the increased speed with which information spreads on social media. We are presenting a research manuscript that has three purposes. The first is to give a treatise on the interesting model developments that have happened in modeling diffusion of innovations. Noting that diffusion modeling is one of the strong theory-based quantitative investigations that has evolved in the marketing literature, we explain how theoretical modeling by various researchers has advanced the knowledge on new product sales growth. Second, given that no theoretical model can claim to be valid unless it is supported strongly by empirical data, we discuss in detail the development of estimation procedures as they pertain to offering validation support to the diffusion of innovation models. From the application perspective of diffusion models, we also look at the forecasting implications and normative developments, e.g., optimal marketing mix policies. Third, acknowledging that there have been comprehensive review papers in the diffusion of innovations area, including: Mahajan and Muller (1979), Mahajan and Wind (1986), Mahajan, Muller and Bass (1990), Mahajan, Muller…
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