Real-World EHR Signals from a Cohort of Blinded Incretin Trial Participants Motivate Novel Indication Opportunities
Abstract
Understanding organ-specific effects of multi-agonist metabolic therapies beyond weight loss remains challenging, particularly while randomized clinical trials are ongoing and treatment allocation remains blinded. Here, we evaluated whether real-world longitudinal biomarker trajectories can provide early hypothesis-generating signals associated with masked trial-medication exposure. Using propensity-matched, de-identified electronic health records from a large federated health network, we compared changes in laboratory and physiologic biomarkers across receptor-defined metabolic therapies. Semaglutide, tirzepatide, and pramlintide served as reference therapies representing GLP-1 receptor, dual GIPR-GLP1R, and amylin-pathway pharmacology, respectively. Individuals with documented participation in a blinded CagriSema/placebo clinical trial were analyzed as a single masked exposure group because active treatment assignment could not be determined from routine-care records. Twenty-five CagriSema/placebo participants were propensity matched 1:5 to tirzepatide (n=125) and empagliflozin (n=125). At 6 months, the masked CagriSema/placebo cohort showed similar changes in weight and HbA1c compared with matched tirzepatide-treated patients (weight, -7.7% vs -10.2%, P=0.27; HbA1c, -2.8% vs -5.1%, P=0.69), but larger increases in estimated glomerular filtration rate (+26.4% vs +6.5%, BH P=0.028). Compared with matched empagliflozin-treated patients, the masked cohort demonstrated larger…
How strong is the evidence?
Evidence Hub reads this as a randomized trial, done in people. Its evidence level is 2 of 5 (High · randomized trial). Randomized trials of a reasonable size are the strongest single-study design. Reported size: 125 participants or records.
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