Development of a Machine Learning-Based Predictive Model for Urinary Tract Infection Risk in Patients with Vitamin D Deficiency: A Multidimensional Clinical Data Analysis
Abstract
Background: Urinary tract infections (UTIs) remain among the most common bacterial infections, yet reliable risk stratification remains challenging. Serum vitamin D has been linked to immune regulation, but its predictive role in UTI subtypes is unclear. Methods: We analyzed 332 de-identified clinical records using six machine learning algorithms: Extra Trees, Gradient Boosting, XGBoost, Logistic Regression, Random Forest, and LightGBM. Two preprocessing strategies were applied: (i) removing rows with missing fasting blood sugar (FBs) and HbA1c, and (ii) dropping columns with Null FBs and HbA1c values. Model performance was evaluated using 10-fold cross-validation. Results: Serum vitamin D showed weak correlations with UTI subtypes but modest importance in tree-based models. The highest predictive accuracy was obtained with Extra Trees (0.9510) under the row-removal strategy and Random Forest (0.9525) under the column-dropping strategy. Models excluding vitamin D maintained comparable accuracy, suggesting minimal impact on overall predictive performance. Conclusions: Machine learning models demonstrated high accuracy and robustness in predicting UTI subtypes across preprocessing strategies. While vitamin D contributes as a supportive feature, it is not essential for reliable prediction. These findings highlight the adaptability and clinical utility of both vitamin D-inclusive and vitamin D-exclusive models, supporting deployment in diverse healthcare settings.
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