Global, regional, and national burden of gastroesophageal reflux disease (1990–2021): age-period-cohort analysis and Bayesian projections
Abstract
Background Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) is a common chronic upper gastrointestinal disorder that causes discomfort and increases the risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma. The global burden of GERD has steadily increased, establishing it as a critical public health issue. This study systematically evaluated the global, regional, and national burden of GERD from 1990 to 2021, revealing epidemiological trends and regional disparities to inform targeted intervention strategies. Methods We utilized data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) to assess the prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) of GERD. Key indicators included age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized YLDs rate (ASYR), and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Analyses were stratified by age, gender, and socio-demographic index (SDI). Age-period-cohort (APC) models were applied to examine trends in the 15–49 age group, and Bayesian APC models were used to project future trends. Results In 2021, global GERD prevalence reached 825.6 million (95% uncertainty interval: 732.99–925.56 million). From 1990 to 2021, incident cases, prevalent cases, and YLDs rose by 83.16, 80.06, and 82.46%, respectively. The ASIR, ASPR, and ASYR all showed upward trends, with EAPCs of 0.097, 0.076, and 0.083. The highest burden of ASIR, ASPR, and ASYR was observed in Tropical Latin America in 2021, while the lowest was in East Asia.…
How strong is the evidence?
Evidence Hub reads this as a cohort study, done in people. Its evidence level is 3 of 5 (Moderate · trial / cohort / secondary analysis). Trials without a large randomized design, cohorts and secondary analyses give moderate evidence.
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