Epidemiological trends and burden of esophageal cancer in the United States, 1990–2023: A retrospective analysis with machine learning projections to 2050
Abstract
e16058
Background:
Esophageal cancer remains a significant cause of cancer-related mortality in the United States, with risk factors including smoking, alcohol, obesity, and gastroesophageal reflux disease contributing to its burden. This study analyzed age-standardized rates (ASRs) of DALYs, deaths, incidence, and prevalence from 1990 to 2023 using IHME GBD 2023 data, evaluated trends through estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), and projected future burden to 2050 employing ARIMA time-series models.
Methods:
Age-standardized rates per 100,000 population were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease 2023 database for the United States, stratified by sex (Both, Female, Male). Historical trends (1990–2023) were assessed via EAPC derived from linear regression on log-transformed ASRs. Future projections (2024–2050) were generated using ARIMA models fitted to historical data, yielding point forecasts and 95% prediction intervals (PI).
Results:
From 1990 to 2023, age-standardized DALYs (Both sexes) decreased from 96.08 (95% UI: 88.99–103.15) to 84.02 (95% UI: 76.56–91.25), with an EAPC of -0.49% (95% CI: -0.61 to -0.36); females experienced a steeper decline (EAPC -0.84%, 95% CI: -0.91 to -0.77) than males (EAPC -0.52%, 95% CI: -0.67 to -0.37). Age-standardized death rates fell from 3.76 to 3.51 (EAPC -0.28%, 95% CI: -0.41 to -0.14), again with greater reductions in females (EAPC -0.78%) than males (EAPC -0.30%). Incidence declined modestly from 4.32 to 4.15 (EAPC…
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