Evaluating Carbon Storage Responses to Land Use Change under Multi-Scenario Simulations: A GMOP–PLUS–InVEST Coupled Framework for Border Cities
Abstract
Abstract Terrestrial ecosystems are critical to the global carbon cycle, yet land use/land cover change (LULC) driven by urbanization and policy interventions significantly disrupts carbon storage dynamics. This study develops an integrated multiple-model framework to analyze the evolution of carbon storage in Dandong, China, a rapidly urbanizing border city facing ecological–economic conflicts. The results revealed a "decline-then-increase" trend (2000–2020), with net carbon gains (+ 52.56×10 5 t) driven by forest expansion (+ 102.41×10 5 t) offsetting cropland loss (− 8.74%). Multiple scenario projections for 2030 highlight trade-offs: the ecological protection scenario (EPS) maximizes sequestration (+ 6.23%) but requires extensive cultivated land conversion, whereas the economic development scenario (EDS) yields minimal gains (+ 0.93%) due to construction land expansion. The comprehensive development scenario (CDS) balances growth (+ 28.01% construction land) and sustainability (+ 5.59% carbon storage). Geodetector analysis revealed the NDVI (Q = 0.515) and topography (slope Q = 0.475) as the dominant drivers, with their interaction (slope–NDVI, Q = 0.615) underscoring synergies between reforestation and terrain optimization. The study advocates zonal LULC policies by prioritizing afforestation in northern mountains and restricting industrial expansion along southern coasts. These findings provide a replicable model for achieving ecological–economic synergy in border…
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