Range and trend of expected toxicity level (ETL) in standard A + B designs: a report from the Children's Oncology Group
Abstract
The traditional algorithm-based 3+3 designs are most widely used for their practical simplicity in phase I clinical trials. At early stage, a common belief was that the expected toxicity level (ETL) at the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) should be 33% [Storer, B. Design and analysis of phase I clinical trials. Biometrics 1989;45;925-937, Gorden, N., Willson, J. Using toxicity grades in the design and analysis of cancer phase I clinical trials. Statistics in Medicine 1992; 11: 2063-2075, Mick, R. Phase I Clinical Trial Design. In Schilsky, R., Milano, G., Ratain, M., eds. Principles of Antineoplastic Drug Development and Pharmacology New York, NY: Marcel Dekker, 1996; 29-36]. Recently, Kang and Ahn [Kang, S., Ahn, C. The expected toxicity rate at the maximum tolerated dose in the standard phase I cancer clinical trial design. Drug Information Journal 2001; 35:1189-1199, Kang, S., Ahn, C. An investigation of the traditional algorithm-based designs for phase I cancer clinical trials. Drug Information Journal 2002; 36:865-873] found that the ETL is between 17% and 21% and He et al [He, W., Liu, J., Binkowitz, B., Quan, H. A model-based approach in the estimation of the maximum tolerated dose in phase I cancer clinical trials. Statistics in Medicine 2006; 25(12):2027-42] further reported that the ETL ranges from 19% to 24%. However they only investigated designs where the number of dose levels was at most 20. It has practical significance in designing and conducting phase I clinical…
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