Derivation of the Pediatric Acute Gastroenteritis Risk Score to Predict Moderate-to-Severe Acute Gastroenteritis
Abstract
Objectives: Although most acute gastroenteritis (AGE) episodes in children rapidly self-resolve, some children go on to experience more significant and prolonged illness. We sought to develop a prognostic score to identify children at risk of experiencing moderate-to-severe disease after an index emergency department (ED) visit.
Methods: Data were collected from a cohort of children 3 to 48 months of age diagnosed with AGE in 16 North American pediatric EDs. Moderate-to-severe AGE was defined as a Modified Vesikari Scale (MVS) score ≥9 during the 14-day post-ED visit. A clinical prognostic model was derived using multivariable logistic regression and converted into a simple risk score. The model's accuracy was assessed for moderate-to-severe AGE and several secondary outcomes.
Results: After their index ED visit, 19% (336/1770) of participants developed moderate-to-severe AGE. Patient age, number of vomiting episodes, dehydration status, prior ED visits, and intravenous rehydration were associated with MVS ≥9 in multivariable regression. Calibration of the prognostic model was strong with a P value of 0.77 by the Hosmer-Lemenshow goodness-of-fit test, and discrimination was moderate with an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of 0.68 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.65-0.72). Similarly, the model was shown to have good calibration when fit to the secondary outcomes of subsequent ED revisit, intravenous rehydration, or hospitalization within 72 hours after…
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Evidence Hub reads this as a cohort study, done in people. Its evidence level is 3 of 5 (Moderate · trial / cohort / secondary analysis). Trials without a large randomized design, cohorts and secondary analyses give moderate evidence.
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