Climate change and gastroenteritis projections in Albanian children
Abstract
Abstract Background Human health can be affected by climate in direct and indirect ways. Increasing temperatures may affect ecosystems, water safety, and exposure to waterborne diseases. This is the first work in Albania aiming to demonstrate the link between gastroenteritis rate and climate in the country. This research was supported by UNICEF Albania through the WASH Global Thematic Fund, but it doesn’t necessarily represent UNICEF’s position. Methods Epidemiological surveillance reports of the period 2006-2022 were used for the yearly incidence of gastroenteritis in children 0-14 years old. Years 2020 and 2021 were not included because of pandemic confounding potential. Historic data for calculating the average summer temperatures were retrieved from timeanddate.com repository. Pearson coefficient is calculated to quantify the associations and linear regression is applied to project the increased rate in the future. Results There was a statistical association between gastroenteritis rate and summer temperatures during the study period (Pearson coefficient=0.78, p = 0.001). There was a tendency that in years with hotter summers higher incidence of gastroenteritis was reported by the health system. For each degree (Celsius) increase in the average summer day temperatures, the risk of gastroenteritis in children is expected to increase by 644/100 000 (CI 95%: 317 - 972). An excess rate of 966/100 000 is expected in the case of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change medium…
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