Change in triglyceride-glucose index predicts the risk of cardiovascular disease in the general population: a prospective cohort study
Abstract
Background Previous studies has shown a significant relationship between baseline triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index and subsequent cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the effect of longitudinal changes in TyG index on the risk of CVD remains uncertain. This study aimed to investigate the association between change in TyG index and the risk of CVD in the general population. Methods The current study included 62,443 Chinese population who were free of CVD. The TyG index was calculated as ln [fasting triglyceride (mg/dL) × fasting glucose (mg/dL)/2], and change in TyG index was defined as the difference between the TyG index in 2010 and that in 2006. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models and restricted cubic spline analysis were used to examine the association between change in TyG index and the risk of CVD. Results During a median follow-up of 7.01 years, 2530 (4.05%) incident CVD occurred, including 2018 (3.23%) incident stroke and 545 (0.87%) incident myocardial infarction (MI). The risk of developing CVD increased with the quartile of change in TyG index, after adjustment for multiple potential confounders, the hazard ratios for the Q4 group versus the Q1 group were 1.37 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.21–1.54) for the overall CVD, 1.38 (95% CI, 1.19–1.60) for stroke, and 1.36 (95% CI, 1.05–1.76) for MI. Restricted cubic spline analysis also showed a cumulative increase in the risk of CVD with increases in the magnitude of change in TyG index. The…
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Evidence Hub reads this as a cohort study, done in people. Its evidence level is 3 of 5 (Moderate · trial / cohort / secondary analysis). Trials without a large randomized design, cohorts and secondary analyses give moderate evidence.
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