Cardio-renal-metabolic modeling in Asia-Pacific: projections of clinical and economic burden and empagliflozin's impact on burden reduction
Abstract
AIMS: The global prevalence of cardio-renal-metabolic (CRM) conditions, including chronic kidney disease, heart failure, type 2 diabetes in interconnected pathophysiology, is rapidly increasing. This presents health/economic consequences for Asia-Pacific (APAC) countries experiencing substantial disease burden. We aimed to forecast the regional clinical/economic burden of comorbid CRM conditions and evaluate the potential impact of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors on burden reduction, with empagliflozin as the modeled intervention.
METHODS: A Markov model (10-year time horizon [2024-2033]; annual cycle length) was developed and adapted for selected Southeast Asian countries (Malaysia/the Philippines/Thailand/Vietnam/Singapore), Australia, and South Korea using published local epidemiological and economic data. Future CRM disease prevalence, as well as the modeled SGLT2 inhibitor empagliflozin's potential in reducing clinical burden (prevalence/mortality) and associated healthcare resource use (HCRU) costs, were estimated. Empagliflozin cost was excluded from HCRU calculations to isolate/evaluate the economic burden of CRM conditions.
RESULTS: Projecting the current disease trends (without SGLT2 inhibitors), the total number of patients with comorbid CRM conditions and deaths in Southeast Asia/Australia/South Korea would increase ∼3-fold from 19.0 million/968,000/2.6 million (2024) to 63.4 million/3.1 million/7.1 million (2033). Guideline-recommended use of…
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