When Should We Biopsy? A Risk Factor-Based Predictive Model for EIN and Endometrial Cancer
Abstract
Background: The incidence of endometrial cancer (EC) is rising globally across all age groups. Endometrial intraepithelial neoplasia (EIN) is a premalignant lesion that may progress to EC if untreated. A clinical model is needed to efficiently identify women requiring prompt evaluation while avoiding unnecessary invasive procedures. Obesity is a major risk factor, but whether Asian women require a lower body mass index (BMI) cutoff than the World Health Organization (WHO) definition remains debated. This study aimed to develop a multivariable risk prediction model to guide biopsy decisions and determine an appropriate BMI cutoff for predicting EIN/EC risk among Asian women.
Methods: This study retrospectively reviewed 1192 women aged ≥18 years who underwent hysteroscopy between 2010 and 2023 at a tertiary hospital. Candidate predictors included patient age, parity, BMI, postmenopausal status, symptom of abnormal uterine bleeding (AUB), diabetes mellitus, hypertension, polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), use of oral contraceptives, intrauterine devices, or menopausal hormone therapy, tamoxifen treatment, presence of multiple polyps, and endometrial thickness (EMT) measured by transvaginal ultrasonography. Multivariable logistic regression with stepwise selection identified independent predictors, and model stability and calibration were assessed using 1000 bootstrap resamples.
Results: EIN/EC was diagnosed in 55 patients (4.6%). Six independent predictors were identified:…
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