Clinical performance and utility: A microsimulation model to inform the design of screening trials for a multi-cancer early detection test
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: Designing cancer screening trials for multi-cancer early detection (MCED) tests presents a significant methodology challenge, as natural histories of cell-free DNA-shedding cancers are not yet known. A microsimulation model was developed to project the performance and utility of an MCED test in cancer screening trials.
METHODS: Individual natural history of preclinical progression through cancer stages for 23 cancer classes was simulated by a stage-transition model under a broad range of cancer latency parameters. Cancer incidences and stage distributions at clinical presentation in simulated trials were set to match the data from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program. One or multiple rounds of annual screening using a targeted methylation-based MCED test (GalleriⓇ) was conducted to detect preclinical cancers. Mortality benefit of early detection was simulated by a stage-shift model.
RESULTS: In simulated trials, accounting for healthy volunteer effect and varying test sensitivity, positive predictive value in the prevalence screening round reached 48% to 61% in 6 natural history scenarios. After 3 rounds of annual screening, the cumulative proportions of stage I/II cancers increased by approximately 9% to 14%, the incidence of stage IV cancers was reduced by 37% to 46%, the reduction of stages III and IV cancer incidences was 9% to 24%, and the reduction of mortality reached 13% to 16%. Greater reductions of late-stage cancers and cancer mortality…
Read the paper
Related studies
- Comparison of the Effects of Glucagon-Like Peptide Receptor Agonists and Sodium-Glucose Cotransporter 2 Inhibitors for Prevention of Major Adverse Cardiovascular and Renal Outcomes in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Cardiovascular Outcomes Trials
- Efficacy of personalized psychological interventions: A systematic review and meta-analysis
- Effects of Lifestyle Interventions That Include a Physical Activity Component in Class II and III Obese Individuals: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
- Blood pressure lowering and risk of new-onset type 2 diabetes: an individual participant data meta-analysis
- Topical treatments for atopic dermatitis (eczema): systematic review and network meta-analysis of randomized trials
- Comparative efficacy and tolerability of pharmacological interventions for acute bipolar depression in adults: a systematic review and network meta-analysis
Go deeper in Evidence Hub
Evidence Hub adds a study data sheet (design, sample size, evidence level, key numbers), an AI summary and a chat grounded in the paper's text.