Water quality modelling and quantitative microbial risk assessment of Msunduzi river
Abstract
In South Africa, intestinal infection diseases were in the top list of underlying natural causes to death in 2016, the majority of those deaths are caused by poor hygiene and unsafe water.Many surface water sources in the sub-Saharan region of Africa are unsafe for domestic use due to faecal pollution.The bacterium Escherichia coli (E.coli) is often used as an indicator of the overall microbial quality of drinking and surface water.The aim of this study was to assess the human health risk due to exposure to water from Msunduzi river.The questions that were considered are how E. coli concentrations in the river vary over time, which the main sources of faecal pollution are in the study area, and in which ways people are exposed to the water in Msunduzi river.Hydrological modelling was made with Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the risk was assessed with Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA).Results from the SWAT-simulation presented a clear seasonal pattern between simulated water flow and concentration of E. coli.However, the measured E. coli concentration and water flow did not show the same pattern.To improve the SWAT model in analysing spread of E. coli, further investigations regarding pollution sources that have impact on the microbial water quality are required.The calibration of the SWAT model was unsuccessful, mainly due to inadequate data concerning the soil, land use and weather conditions.The soil and land use need further investigations and more…
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