Incidence of Fractures and Development of the Fracture Risk Model (FRM) in a Population-Based Cohort Study in Abu Dhabi
Abstract
Fractures in older adults cause high morbidity and mortality. This study aims to identify fracture incidence and risk factors, and to develop the Fracture Risk Model-Abu Dhabi (FRM-AD).
Method: This retrospective cohort study of 1757 males and females aged 40+ from Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, who participated in a screening program from 2016 to 2020, followed until 2024 for 4.7 years, SD =1.8. It utilized Electronic Medical Records (EMRs) data and telephone interviews. The outcome assessed was the occurrence of fractures.
Results: There were 58 out of the 1149 females (5.0%) and 26 out of the 608 males (4.3%) who had at least one incident fracture. Hip and vertebral fractures accounted for 12.1% and 11.5%, respectively. There was an annual incidence of 10.5 fractures per 1,000 person-years, 10.7 cases among females and 9.9 among males, rising after age 80 to 39.1 among females and 25.3 among males. Fracture Predictors identified using Poisson regression analysis were older age, smoking, history of previous fracture(s), interaction of history of fracture in a parent with a family history of osteoporosis, positive history of hip fracture in a parent after the age of 40, lack of dyslipidemia diagnosis and the interaction of diabetes mellitus diagnosis and family history of osteoporosis. A higher Body Mass Index (BMI) increased the risk of fractures in this cohort, especially in obese males. Logistic regression of variables at the end of follow-up showed that lower latest…
How strong is the evidence?
Evidence Hub reads this as a cohort study, done in people. Its evidence level is 3 of 5 (Moderate · trial / cohort / secondary analysis). Trials without a large randomized design, cohorts and secondary analyses give moderate evidence.
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