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Predictors of Fracture in Middle-Aged and Older Adults With Type 2 Diabetes and Overweight or Obesity

Elam RE, Johnson KC, Xu H, Isales CM, Dong Y, Carbone LD

The Journal of clinical endocrinology and metabolism, 2025

4,703 participants · 2 citations

Abstract

Context: Persons with type 2 diabetes have increased fracture risk that existing fracture risk assessment tools underestimate.

Objective: Identify fracture predictors in persons with type 2 diabetes and overweight or obesity, considering traditional and diabetes-related risk factors.

Methods: This is a secondary analysis of a multicenter US study, the Look AHEAD: Action for Health in Diabetes randomized clinical trial, with randomization from 2001 to 2004 and fracture follow-up until 2015. Participants were men and women 45 to 75 years old with type 2 diabetes and body mass index ≥ 25 kg/m2. Potential fracture predictors ascertained at randomization included traditional and diabetes-related risk factors (diabetes duration, diabetic neuropathy, antidiabetic medication use, hemoglobin A1c, and renal function). Total hip bone mineral density (BMD) was measured in a subcohort. Primary outcome was all incident clinical fractures, ascertained by self-report and centrally adjudicated with medical records review.

Results: Over a median 12.2-year follow-up, 649 of the 4703 participants experienced at least one clinical fracture. Thiazolidinedione use (hazard ratio [HR] 1.22; 95% CI, 1.02-1.46) and insulin use (HR 1.34, 95% CI, 1.08-1.66) were significant diabetes-related predictors of all clinical fractures. When measured in a subcohort (n = 1285), total hip BMD was the strongest modifiable predictor of all clinical fractures (per 1 SD = 0.1 g/cm2 increase, HR 0.47; 95% CI,…

How strong is the evidence?

Evidence Hub reads this as a randomized trial, done in people. Its evidence level is 2 of 5 (High · randomized trial). Randomized trials of a reasonable size are the strongest single-study design. Reported size: 4,703 participants or records.

How the five levels of evidence work. The level is assigned automatically from the abstract and can be wrong, so check the paper.

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