Clinical and Laboratory Predictors of Bone Mineral Density Trajectories and Osteoporosis Progression: A Retrospective Longitudinal Cohort Study
Abstract
Background: Whether routinely available laboratory measures are associated with longitudinal bone mineral density (BMD) change in clinical practice remains uncertain, particularly when treatment exposure and other major skeletal determinants are incompletely recorded. This study examined BMD trajectories and incident osteoporosis in a Saudi dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) cohort. Anti-osteoporosis therapy, glucocorticoid exposure and menopausal status were unavailable, limiting causal interpretation. Methods: This retrospective longitudinal cohort included DXA examinations performed at King Saud University Medical City (KSUMC), Riyadh, from 2016 to 2021. The trajectory analysis comprised 2147 patients with at least two scans and a minimum one-year interval. Diagnostic category was based on the lowest T-score across the lumbar spine, bilateral femoral necks and distal radius. Twenty linear mixed-effects (LME) models evaluated time-by-biomarker interactions with Benjamini-Hochberg correction. Cox proportional hazards (PH) regression was the primary analysis of incident osteoporosis among 789 patients without osteoporosis at baseline. Results: During 2045 person-years of observation, 107 patients developed osteoporosis (5.2 events per 100 person-years). No event occurred among 124 patients with normal baseline BMD, compared with 107 events among 665 patients with baseline osteopenia (log-rank p p = 0.076); no modelled covariate reached statistical significance. None of…
How strong is the evidence?
Evidence Hub reads this as a cohort study, done in people. Its evidence level is 3 of 5 (Moderate · trial / cohort / secondary analysis). Trials without a large randomized design, cohorts and secondary analyses give moderate evidence. Reported size: 2,147 participants or records.
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