Treatment-related changes in bone mineral density as a surrogate biomarker for fracture risk reduction: meta-regression analyses of individual patient data from multiple randomised controlled trials
Abstract
BACKGROUND
The validation of bone mineral density (BMD) as a surrogate outcome for fracture would allow the size of future randomised controlled osteoporosis registration trials to be reduced. We aimed to determine the association between treatment-related changes in BMD, assessed by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry, and fracture outcomes, including the proportion of treatment effect explained by BMD changes.
METHODS
We did a pooled analysis of individual patient data from multiple randomised placebo-controlled clinical trials. We included data from multicentre, randomised, placebo-controlled, double-blind trials of osteoporosis medications that included women and men at increased osteoporotic fracture risk. Using individual patient data for each trial we calculated mean 24-month BMD percent change together with fracture reductions and did a meta-regression of the association between treatment-related differences in BMD changes (percentage difference, active minus placebo) and fracture risk reduction. We also used individual patient data to determine the proportion of anti-fracture treatment effect explained by BMD changes and the BMD change needed in future trials to ensure fracture reduction efficacy.
FINDINGS
Individual patient data from 91 779 participants of 23 randomised, placebo-controlled trials were included. The trials had 1-9 years of follow-up and included 12 trials of bisphosphonate, one of odanacatib, two of hormone therapy (one of conjugated equine oestrogen…
How strong is the evidence?
Evidence Hub reads this as a randomized trial, done in people. Its evidence level is 2 of 5 (High · randomized trial). Randomized trials of a reasonable size are the strongest single-study design. Reported size: 91 participants or records.
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