Multi-level time-varying causality analysis of secondary conflicts based on hazard-based duration models
Abstract
Secondary conflicts occur frequently and would cause multi-vehicle collisions. In order to prevent multi-vehicle collisions, a better understanding of the factors that affect secondary conflict propagation is crucial. Previous studies have identified the influencing factors of primary conflicts' occurrence, but have not explored the time-varying factors that affect secondary conflicts' propagation. In addressing this gap, about 20,000 secondary conflicts are extracted from real trajectory dataset, and a multi-level variable system is established, including segment types, traffic status, front chain conflict status, and direct interaction behaviors. Further, a Kaplan-Meyer model and a random parameters hazard-based duration model are constructed to explore the single-factor and multiple-factor influence on the propagation of secondary conflicts, respectively. The results suggest that the first 2.6 s after a conflict is a critical post-monitoring period to prevent the secondary conflicts propagation. In addition, diverging and merging segments shorten the survival time of secondary conflicts by about 12%, indicating a higher occurrence probability of secondary conflicts near the ramps of expressways. More importantly, the front chain conflict status and the front direct conflict status reveal a different effect on the secondary conflicts. The high risk of chain conflict ahead would increase the occurrence probability of secondary conflicts, while the high risk of front…
Read the paper
Related studies
- Photochemical behavior of levofloxacin
- Promising Ursolic Acid as a Novel Antituberculosis Agent: Current Progress and Challenges
- Proof of principle concept for the analysis and functional prediction of rare genetic variants in the CYP2C19 and CYP2D6 genes
- Synthesis of [11C]levofloxacin
- Fabrication, characterization, and docking studies of furosemide-loaded nanosponges using the emulsion solvent diffusion method
- The Effect of Concomitant Administration of Proton Pump Inhibitors on the Pharmacokinetics of CDK4/6 Inhibitors in Rats: Implications for the Evaluation of Hepatic and Transporter-Mediated Drug–Drug Interactions
Go deeper in Evidence Hub
Evidence Hub adds a study data sheet (design, sample size, evidence level, key numbers), an AI summary and a chat grounded in the paper's text.