A compartmental model for the spread of Nipah virus in a periodic environment
Abstract
Nipah virus (NiV) is a zoonotic virus that causes outbreaks of fatal disease in humans. Fruit bat, also known as the flying fox, is the animal host reservoir for NiV. It is known to cause illness in pigs, which are considered an intermediate host. In this paper, we propose a model for NiV disease transmission taking into account all human-to-host animal transmission as well as the loss of immunity in those who have recovered. Furthermore, we take into consideration seasonal effects such as varying transmission rate from bats and birth rate of bats. We studied the existence and uniqueness of a disease-free $ \omega $-periodic solution and later deals with the basic reproduction number and stability analysis. To support the analytical results we provide numerical examples and assess the effect of parameter changes on disease dynamics, which might help to understand how to avoid a yearly periodic recurrence of the disease.
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