Species interactions and climate change: How the disruption of species co-occurrence will impact on an avian forest guild
Abstract
Interspecific interactions are crucial in determining species occurrence and community assembly. Understanding these interactions is thus essential for correctly predicting species' responses to climate change. We focussed on an avian forest guild of four hole-nesting species with differing sensitivities to climate that show a range of well-understood reciprocal interactions, including facilitation, competition and predation. We modelled the potential distributions of black woodpecker and boreal, tawny and Ural owl, and tested whether the spatial patterns of the more widespread species (excluding Ural owl) were shaped by interspecific interactions. We then modelled the potential future distributions of all four species, evaluating how the predicted changes will alter the overlap between the species' ranges, and hence the spatial outcomes of interactions. Forest cover/type and climate were important determinants of habitat suitability for all species. Field data analysed with N-mixture models revealed effects of interspecific interactions on current species abundance, especially in boreal owl (positive effects of black woodpecker, negative effects of tawny owl). Climate change will impact the assemblage both at species and guild levels, as the potential area of range overlap, relevant for species interactions, will change in both proportion and extent in the future. Boreal owl, the most climate-sensitive species in the guild, will retreat, and the range overlap with its main…
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