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Analysis of the impact of national centralized volume-based procurement drug policy on the market dynamics of tuberculosis drugs

Yang J, Yu X, Yao Y, Zhao W, Chen Y, Wang Z, Xu M

BMC health services research, 2026

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Abstract

Background: China's National Centralized Drug Procurement (NCDP) consolidates public-sector procurement demand and links guaranteed volumes to competitive tendering. The impact of this policy on reshaping the tuberculosis (TB) medicines market-specifically prices and expenditure, procurement volumes, and market structure-remains insufficiently quantified using time-series methods across multiple procurement cycles and hospital types.

Methods: A hospital-stratified interrupted time series (ITS) study was conducted utilizing monthly public-hospital procurement data from January 2015 to December 2022. Six TB medicines included in national procurement rounds 2-4 comprised the intervention group: isoniazid, moxifloxacin, ethambutol, linezolid, levofloxacin, and pyrazinamide. Nine TB-related medicines not included in these rounds served as comparators: rifampicin, rifapentine, rifabutin, streptomycin, protionamide, cycloserine, p-aminosalicylic acid sodium, bedaquiline, and clofazimine. Analyses were stratified by hospital type (general versus TB-specialized hospitals) and drug classification (first-line versus second-line agents). Outcome measures included procurement volume, total expenditure and cost per defined daily dose (DDDc), market concentration, and the number of active manufacturers in hospital procurement. Segmented regression analysis estimated immediate level and subsequent slope changes. Sensitivity analyses with alternative comparator specifications assessed…

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