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Heterogeneous effects of Medicaid coverage on cardiovascular risk factors: secondary analysis of randomized controlled trial

K. Inoue, Susan Athey, Katherine Baicker, Yusuke Tsugawa

British medical journal, 2024

12 participants · 23 citations

Abstract

Abstract Objectives To investigate whether health insurance generated improvements in cardiovascular risk factors (blood pressure and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) levels) for identifiable subpopulations, and using machine learning to identify characteristics of people predicted to benefit highly. Design Secondary analysis of randomized controlled trial. Setting Medicaid insurance coverage in 2008 for adults on low incomes (defined as lower than the federal-defined poverty line) in Oregon who were uninsured. Participants 12 134 participants from the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment with in-person data for health outcomes for both treatment and control groups. Interventions Health insurance (Medicaid) coverage. Main outcomes measures The conditional local average treatment effects of Medicaid coverage on systolic blood pressure and HbA1c using a machine learning causal forest algorithm (with instrumental variables). Characteristics of individuals with positive predicted benefits of Medicaid coverage based on the algorithm were compared with the characteristics of others. The effect of Medicaid coverage was calculated on blood pressure and HbA1c among individuals with high predicted benefits. Results In the in-person interview survey, mean systolic blood pressure was 119 (standard deviation 17) mm Hg and mean HbA1c concentrations was 5.3% (standard deviation 0.6%). Our causal forest model showed heterogeneity in the effect of Medicaid coverage on systolic blood pressure and HbA1c.…

How strong is the evidence?

Evidence Hub reads this as a secondary / pooled analysis, done in people. Its evidence level is 3 of 5 (Moderate · trial / cohort / secondary analysis). Trials without a large randomized design, cohorts and secondary analyses give moderate evidence. Reported size: 12 participants or records.

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