Rates and Risk Factors of Progression in Patients with Nontuberculous Mycobacterial Pulmonary Disease: Secondary Analysis of a Prospective Cohort Study
Abstract
BACKGROUND
The clinical course of nontuberculous mycobacterial pulmonary disease (NTM-PD) is varied, and a watchful waiting management strategy is appropriate for a subset of patients. Understanding disease progression and risk factors for progression is essential for deciding on an appropriate follow-up strategy.
RESEARCH QUESTION
What is the rate of NTM-PD progression, and what are the predictors of progression?
STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS
Patients with NTM-PD who were enrolled in a prospective observational cohort study between July 1, 2011, and December 31, 2022 were included in this analysis. Clinical, bacterial, laboratory, and radiographic data were collected at enrollment and then regularly during follow-up. NTM-PD progression was defined as either the initiation of treatment or the clinician's intention to treat. The rate of progression was calculated and the predictors for progression were analyzed.
RESULTS
Of the 477 patients enrolled, NTM-PD progressed in 192 patients over a median follow-up of 5.4 years. The incidence of NTM-PD progression was 11.0 cases per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI] 9.5-12.7). The proportion of patients experiencing disease progression was 21.4% at 1 year, 33.8% at 3 years, and 43.3% at 5 years. The final multivariable analysis model identified female sex (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.69, 95% CI 1.19-2.39), elevated erythrocyte sedimentation rate (aHR 1.79, 95% CI 1.31-2.43), percent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1…
How strong is the evidence?
Evidence Hub reads this as a secondary / pooled analysis, done in people. Its evidence level is 3 of 5 (Moderate · trial / cohort / secondary analysis). Trials without a large randomized design, cohorts and secondary analyses give moderate evidence. Reported size: 477 participants or records.
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