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Chronic Migraine and Alzheimer’s Dementia: A Candidate Mechanistic Route, and the Evidence That Would Test It

Sulter GA

2026

Abstract

Objective: : To establish whether the published epidemiological record can support or refute the proposition that chronic migraine is a modifiable midlife contributor to Alzheimer’s dementia, and to specify the studies that would settle the question.

Background:: Migraine is repeatedly reported as a dementia risk factor and has been proposed for addition to the list of modifiable risks. A route from recurrent cortical spreading depolarization through perivascular clearance failure to amyloid aggregation, and onward through pannexin-1–HMGB1–toll-like-receptor transduction to sustained neuroinflammation, is biologically coherent. Whether the epidemiology actually tests that route has not been examined.

Methods:: Narrative review. PubMed, Google Scholar and CrossRef were searched from January 2020 to August 2026, with hand-searching for seminal earlier work. Following an internal audit, every quantitative claim was re-derived from the source record rather than from an earlier draft, and claims that could not be so derived were removed.

Results:: The association declines monotonically as control over ascertainment improves. For primary headache the odds ratio is 1.49 (95% CI 1.20–1.85) in case-control studies, 1.35 (1.25–1.45) in retrospective cohorts and 0.82 (0.74–0.92) in prospective cohorts, the last significantly below the null. Heterogeneity falls from I2 85.9% undivided to 9.2%, 61.9% and 26.9% within design strata, and small-study effects appear only in the middle…

How strong is the evidence?

Evidence Hub reads this as a case-control, done in people. Its evidence level is 4 of 5 (Low · observational). Observational designs can show an association but not prove cause.

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