Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy for Insomnia to Reduce Chronic Migraine: A Sequential Bayesian Analysis
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Insomnia is frequently comorbid with chronic migraine, and small trials suggest that cognitive-behavioral treatment of insomnia (CBTi) may reduce migraine frequency. This study endeavored to provide a quantitative synthesis of existing CBTi trials for adults with chronic migraine using Bayesian statistical methods, given their utility in combining prior knowledge with sequentially gathered data.
METHODS: Completer analyses of 2 randomized trials comparing CBTi to a sham control intervention (Calhoun and Ford, 2007; Smitherman et al, 2016) were used to quantify the effects of a brief course of treatment on headache frequency. Change in headache frequency from baseline to the primary endpoint (6-8 weeks posttreatment) was regressed on group status using a Gaussian linear model with each study specified in the order of completion. To estimate the combined effect, posterior distributions from the Calhoun and Ford study were used as informative priors for conditioning on the Smitherman et al data.
RESULTS: In a combined analysis of these prior studies, monthly headache frequency of the treatment group decreased by 6.2 days (95%CrI: -9.7 to -2.7) more than the control group, supporting an interpretation that there is a 97.5% chance that the treatment intervention is at least 2.7 days better than the control intervention. The analysis supports the hypothesis that at least for those who complete treatment, there is high probability that individuals who receive CBTi…
How strong is the evidence?
Evidence Hub reads this as a randomized trial, done in people. Its evidence level is 2 of 5 (High · randomized trial). Randomized trials of a reasonable size are the strongest single-study design.
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