Global, Regional, and National Temporal Trends in Prevalence for Migraine in Women of Childbearing Age: An Updated Age-Period-Cohort Analysis Based on Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Abstract
Abstract Introduction: The aim of this study was to provide a comprehensive assessment of temporal trends in migraine prevalence among women of childbearing age (WCBA) at global, regional, and national levels from 1992 to 2021, with particular emphasis on examining the associations between prevalence patterns and age, period, and birth cohort effects across different sociodemographic index (SDI) regions. Methods: We conducted a secondary analysis of data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Migraine prevalence estimates and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for WCBA were extracted. An age-period-cohort model was employed to estimate the net drift (primary outcomes), local drift, and age/period/cohort relative risks (secondary outcomes). Results: The global number of WCBA with migraine reached 493,937,856.01 (95% UI: 420,683,360.54–577,874,600.76) in 2021. The highest burden was found in India (95.7 million) and China (68.1 million), together accounting for substantial proportion of global prevalence. The global net drift showed a minimal change of 0.01% (95% CI: 0.00–0.02) per year, with variations across sociodemographic index (SDI) regions ranging from −0.03% per year (95% CI: −0.04 to −0.02) in low-middle-SDI regions to 0.16% (95% CI: 0.15–0.17) in middle-SDI regions. Local drift analysis reveals that migraine prevalence increases across young age groups (15–19 years) in high-SDI regions, while lower-SDI regions generally display stable rates. Globally, increases…
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Evidence Hub reads this as a cohort study, done in people. Its evidence level is 3 of 5 (Moderate · trial / cohort / secondary analysis). Trials without a large randomized design, cohorts and secondary analyses give moderate evidence.
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