Adaptation measures of the potential double cropping region in Northern China to future climate change
Abstract
In the context of climate change, the northern climate-based boundaries of the winter wheat-summer maize double cropping system (DCS) have moved northward and westward. The selection of spring maize single cropping system (SCS) or DCS in the potential DCS region in northern China directly affects the annual crop yield, resource use efficiency, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Reducing GHG emissions while improving yield and resource use efficiency is essential to green agricultural development. We used future climate data (2021-2060, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), along with crop and soil data, to assess the applicability of the Denitrification-Decomposition Model (DNDC) for simulating crop yield and GHG emissions. Through simulation of DNDC, we identified a cropping system that prioritized high yield, resource use efficiency, and GHG emissions reduction, adapting to future climate change. Under this cropping system, we quantified the effects of various straw incorporation rates, irrigation, and nitrogen input on crop yield, resource use efficiency, and GHG emissions. We proposed optimal measures to adapt to future climate change while aiming for high yield, resource use efficiency, and GHG emissions reduction. The results show that the DNDC reliably simulated yield and GHG emissions for the (SCS) and the DCS. In counting for greenhouse gas emission intensity (GHGI) as GHG emissions normalized by crop yield, the GHGI was reduced by 86.4% and 89.2% in DCS than in SCS under the…
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