Distribution prediction of the habitat of Jingmen tick virus in China
Abstract
Jingmen tick virus (JMTV) is widely distributed in China, and human cases have been reported. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to understand the distribution of the JMTV in suitable areas in China under the current and projected future climates. We used two pairs of JMTV primers to detect ticks in Guizhou Province via PCR and obtained data on JMTV detection in other regions through literature research. We obtained climate data from China. Finally, maximum entropy, a boosted regression tree model, and a random forest model were used for prediction. The predictive performance of the model was evaluated by the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The JMTV positivity rate in Guizhou Province was 11.02%, which was lower than the overall national positivity rate of 16.9%. The predicted probability increased monotonically with increasing monthly mean temperature. China's high JMTV habitat is concentrated in the Daxinganling region of Heilongjiang, Shanghai, and Hainan Provinces, with the total area of high JMTV habitat accounting for 1.94% of the country's total land area. In the future, from 2021 to 2040, the area of JMTV habitat area in China will show an expanding trend. Our maps of JMTV distributions provide effective early warning information for monitoring JMTV and rapidly detecting outbreaks. The potential distribution of JMTV in China is expected to increase in size in the future, requiring continuous attention and…
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