Understanding animal-building-management interactions in response to heat: sensitivity analysis of a dynamic individual-based model of pig fattening
Abstract
Climate change and increasing thermal stress represent major challenges for intensive pig production systems, affecting animal performance, welfare, and farm profitability. In this context, integrative models such as ThermiPig are increasingly used to simulate the combined effects of climate, housing, and animal responses on swine production performance. However, the complexity of these models requires a better understanding of how input parameters influence simulation outputs. This study applied a two-step global sensitivity analysis to investigate the influence of nine biological, environmental, housing, and management-related parameters on the technical, environmental, and economic outputs of the ThermiPig model. First, the Morris screening method was used to identify the most influential parameters among the nine inputs considered. Subsequently, a Sobol variance-based sensitivity analysis was performed on the selected parameters to quantify their main and interaction effects on model outputs. The objective was to identify the main drivers of simulation variability and improve understanding of model behaviour under contrasting production conditions. The analysis showed that outdoor temperature was the dominant factor influencing model outputs. Temperature variations strongly affected animal growth, waste production, and economic performance, highlighting the vulnerability of pig production systems to climatic conditions. Average protein deposition and the minimum number…
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