Expert Clinician Certainty in Diagnosing Autism Spectrum Disorder in 16–30-Month-Olds: A Multi-site Trial Secondary Analysis
Abstract
Differential diagnosis of young children with suspected autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is challenging, and clinician uncertainty about a child’s diagnosis may contribute to misdiagnosis and subsequent delays in access to early treatment. The current study was designed to replicate and expand a recent report in this Journal (McDonnell et al. in J Autism Dev Disord 49:1391–1401, https://doi.org/10.1080/15374416.2020.1823850, 2019), in which only 60% of diagnoses were made with complete certainty by clinicians evaluating 478 toddlers and preschool children referred for possible ASD to specialized clinics. In this study, secondary analyses were performed on diagnostic, demographic and clinical data for 496 16–30-month-old children who were consecutive referrals to a 6-site clinical trial executed by specialized centers with experienced clinicians following best-practice procedures for the diagnosis of ASD. Overall, 70.2% of diagnoses were made with complete certainty. The most important factor associated with clinician uncertainty was mid-level autism-related symptomatology. Mid-level verbal age equivalents were also associated with clinician uncertainty, but measures of symptomatology were stronger predictors. None of the socio-demographic variables, including sex of the child, was significantly associated with clinician certainty. Close to one third of early diagnoses of ASD are made with a degree of uncertainty. The delineation of specific ranges on the ADOS-2 most likely to…
How strong is the evidence?
Evidence Hub reads this as a secondary / pooled analysis, done in people. Its evidence level is 3 of 5 (Moderate · trial / cohort / secondary analysis). Trials without a large randomized design, cohorts and secondary analyses give moderate evidence.
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