Accelerated invasion of Nypa fruticans during 2000-2024 in degraded mangrove ecosystem in Sumatra analysed using Google Earth Engine
Abstract
Abstract. Eddy S, Setiawan AA, Milantara N, Rahmawati, Billardi A, Sundoko A. 2026. Accelerated invasion of Nypa fruticans during 2000-2024 in degraded mangrove ecosystem in Sumatra analysed using Google Earth Engine. Biodiversitas 27 (1): d270110. https://doi.org/10.13057/biodiv/d270110. This study analyzes the invasion patterns of nipah (Nypa fruticans) and their implications for the degradation of the Air Telang Protected Forest (ATPF) ecosystem from 2000 to 2024. Using a unique methodological combination of large-scale, time-series analysis from Google Earth Engine (GEE) with high-resolution drone-based validation, we mapped land cover changes and quantified nipah expansion under intensifying anthropogenic pressures. Land cover classification from 2000, 2012, and 2024 revealed a sharp decline in native primary and secondary mangrove forests, concurrent with rapid increases in nipah-dominated areas, open lands, and plantations. This methodology allowed for a more comprehensive tracking and understanding of the invasion dynamics throughout the 2000-2024 timeframe. The Maximum Entropy algorithm was utilized to model the species' potential spread based on key environmental variables, including soil type, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, elevation, slope, temperature, and rainfall. The results show a significant decline in native mangrove cover, directly corresponding to an increase in nipah colonies and open areas, driven by anthropogenic activities such as illegal…
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