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Challenges in Quantification/Forecasting and Procurement of Paracetamol and Iron tablets in Nepal’s Public Health System

Shakya HS, Kaur G, Shakya K

Research Square, 2026

Abstract

Abstract Aim: There are many challenges in forecasting, quantification, and procurement of health commodities in global public health systems which results in inaccurate demand forecasting, inefficient procurement of health products. To build forecasting capacity, a clear understanding of demand forecasting must be embedded across all health supply chain systems, especially in resource-constrained settings. The major barriers for effective management of essential medicines include delays in procurement processes. These gaps result in frequent stock-outs or overstock and expiry of paracetamol and iron tablets in the health facilities. The study aims is to find out gaps and challenges through this research to analyze these gaps and challenges on quantification, forecasting and public procurement processes and systems, identify solutions and propose practical, evidence-based solutions to improve pubic procurement efficiency, ensure timely delivery and availability of these two essential medicines. Method: The research employed a mixed-methods approach, using quantitative surveys and qualitative interviews to gather data from various public health institutions. A sample size of 325 health institutions were selected across geographical settings. Data analysis involved both quantitative statistical and qualitative thematic analysis. Result: Forecasting and quantification challenges: 23% of health institutions indicated there is a lack of training and availability of guidelines,…

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