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Understanding Forecasting and Quantification of Paracetamol and Iron tablets in Nepal’s Public Health System

Shakya HS, Kaur G, Shakya K, Bajracharya RM

2026

Abstract

Abstract Background Ensuring regular and uninterrupted availability of essential drugs is a cornerstone of an effective public health system. Despite their importance, the public health supply chain continues to face challenges, particularly relating to consistent supply of essential drugs, including accurate forecasting and efficient procurement processes. The study focused on sub-national levels health institutions with an objective to understand how existing forecasting practices impact the efficiency and reliability of supply chains in public health logistics. Method The research employed a mixed-methods approach, using quantitative surveys and qualitative interviews to gather data from various public health institutions. A sample size of 325 health institutions were selected across geographical settings. Data analysis involved both quantitative statistical and qualitative thematic analysis. Result There were no clear pattern of using data like LMIS, HMIS, and Population data. 50% of the health institution thought the method they were using was not effective. 58% of the health staff received no formal training. 97% of the health institution did not have automated software for quantification. 56% of the health institutions did not have printed guideline in their office premises and almost none of the health facilities were using computer based program for forecasting. Conclusions There is a significant gap on the process of quantification and forecasting of health…

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