Risk factors and prediction model for early pregnancy loss in polycystic ovary syndrome - development and validation: A retrospective and observational study
Abstract
Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is a common endocrine disorder affecting reproductive-aged women and is associated with an increased risk of early pregnancy loss (EPL). The underlying mechanisms remain multifactorial and poorly understood. This study aimed to identify key risk factors for EPL in PCOS patients and develop a corresponding predictive model. A retrospective and observational cohort study was conducted on 134 PCOS patients between January 2023 and June 2025. Patients were randomly assigned to training (60%, n = 80) and validation (40%, n = 54) cohorts using an internal validation method. Clinical data, including patients' demographic and clinical factors (age, body mass index, history of adverse pregnancy outcomes), and laboratory test results (fasting blood glucose, fasting insulin(FINS), impaired glucose tolerance, triglyceride(TG), total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol(HDL-C), thyroid-stimulating hormone, anti-müllerian hormone(AMH), vitamin D(VD), estradiol, progesterone, luteinizing hormone (LH), follicle-stimulating hormone, prolactin and testosterone), were collected and analyzed. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression identified independent risk factors, which were incorporated into a nomogram prediction model. Model performance was assessed using the C-index, receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis. Univariable logistic analysis revealed statistical differences between the EPL…
How strong is the evidence?
Evidence Hub reads this as a randomized trial, done in people. Its evidence level is 2 of 5 (High · randomized trial). Randomized trials of a reasonable size are the strongest single-study design. Reported size: 134 participants or records.
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