Short-term forecasting of Mmax during hydraulic fracturing
Abstract
Previous studies of injection-induced earthquake sequences have shown that the maximum magnitude (Mmax) of injection-induced seismicity increases with the net injected volume (V); however, different proposed seismic-hazard paradigms predict significantly different values of Mmax. Using injection and seismicity data from two project areas in northeastern British Columbia, Canada, where hydraulic fracturing induced seismicity was observed, we test the predictive power and robustness of three existing and one novel method to estimate Mmax. Due to their vastly different values of seismogenic index (Σ), these two project areas represent end-member cases of seismogenic response. Our novel method progressively adjusts the Mmax forecast under the assumption that each recorded event embodies an incremental release of fluid-induced stress. The results indicate that our method typically provides the lowest upper bound of the tested methods and it is less sensitive to site-specific calibration parameters such as Σ. This makes the novel method appealing for operational earthquake forecasting schemes as a real-time mitigation strategy to manage the risks of induced seismicity.
Read the paper
Related studies
- Current state and future directions for deep learning based automatic seismic fault interpretation: A systematic review
- Physics of Partially Saturated Porous Media: Residual Saturation and Seismic-Wave Propagation
- Modern Imaging Using Seismic Reflection Data
- Effects of marine seismic surveys on free-ranging fauna: a systematic literature review
- A review of the recent seismic activity in the southern part of egypt (upper egypt)
- A review of research on mechanism of seismic attenuation and energy compensation
Go deeper in Evidence Hub
Evidence Hub adds a study data sheet (design, sample size, evidence level, key numbers), an AI summary and a chat grounded in the paper's text.