Statistical Characteristics of Strong Earthquake Sequence in Northeastern Tibetan Plateau
Abstract
As the forefront of inland extension on the Indian plate, the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, marked by low strain rates and high stress levels, is one of the regions with the highest seismic risk. Analyzing seismicity through statistical methods holds significant scientific value for understanding tectonic conditions and assessing earthquake risk. However, seismic monitoring capacity in this region remains limited, and earthquake frequency is low, complicating efforts to improve earthquake catalogs through enhanced identification and localization techniques. Bi-scale empirical probability integral transformation (BEPIT), a statistical method, can address these data gaps by supplementing missing events shortly after moderate to large earthquakes, resulting in a more reliable statistical data set. In this study, we analyzed six earthquake sequences with magnitudes of MS ≥ 6.0 that occurred in northeastern Tibet since 2009, following the upgrade of the regional seismic network. Using BEPIT, we supplemented short-term missing aftershocks in these sequences, creating a more complete earthquake catalog. ETAS model parameters and b values for these sequences were then estimated using maximum likelihood methods to analyze parameter variability across sequences. The findings indicate that the b value is low, reflecting relatively high regional stress. The background seismicity rate is very low, with most mainshocks in these sequences being background events rather than…
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