Declustering characteristics of the North China Plain seismic belt and its effect on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis
Abstract
The accurate and impartial identification of background seismic activity is an important foundation for earthquake model construction and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). We use the Gardner and Knopoff, Reasenberg, nearest-neighbor and stochastic declustering methods to decluster in the North China Plain seismic belt, analyzing the effect of declustering. We optimize the input parameters of the algorithms through Kolmogorov-Smirnov Poisson distribution tests (e.g., the clustering threshold of the nearest-neighbor method is set to 0.6). Four algorithms demonstrate good declustering effects, removing the impact of the strong seismicity in Tangshan while retaining similar trends to all events. The occurrence of major earthquake events can significantly impact the declustering characteristics in terms of time, space and magnitude. There is a difference in the overall hazard between the four declustering algorithms and the Fifth Generation Seismic Ground Motion Parameters Zonation Map of China. The difference in seismic hazard curves is mainly influenced by the annual average occurrence rate (background rates) and the Gutenberg-Richter b value, with the effect of the b value being more pronounced. The analysis of the effect of algorithms and their impact on PSHA can provide reference for earthquake risk assessment, engineering seismic design and disaster research.
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