Framework for Selection of Representative Earthquake Scenarios for Regional Risk Simulation leveraging National Seismic Hazard Model
Abstract
Abstract Deterministic earthquake scenarios have been shown to effectively inform risk reduction policies, risk communication strategies, and engaging a large network of stakeholders. However, there is little guidance on how to select earthquake scenarios that are representative of the seismicity of a region and effective for the intended use-case. This paper provides a framework that leverages robust national seismic hazard models (NSHM) to inform the selection of earthquake scenarios. The framework has been used to select representative earthquake scenarios in Wellington, New Zealand. Seismic hazard disaggregations from national seismic hazard models, along with rupture rates of possible rupture instances, are used to inform this decision. The framework recognizes the inherently subjective nature of scenario selection and accommodates judgements based on the intended use-case. The paper presents the implementation of the framework by selecting two representative scenarios for seismic risk assessments for the buildings in the region, which yields a M7.3 Wellington-Hutt Valley earthquake scenario and a M8.1 Hikurangi subduction zone scenario. Ground motion intensity maps are presented for the two selected scenarios, and the distribution of ground motion intensity at one location is compared with the corresponding distribution from the national seismic hazard model. This comparison is presented by quantifying the probability of scenario hazard intensity exceeding the median…
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