Time series of radon in air & anomalies as precursors of seismic activity
Abstract
Abstract Many previous research studies have shown how earthquakes of various sizes can significantly affect the release of radon from the soil. The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between radon concentrations in the air and seismic activity, focusing on cases where radon concentration increases as a precursor phenomenon to a sequential earthquake. To carry out this study, the earthquake catalog of the Crete region was used to estimate seismic activity from June 2023 to January 2024, a period during which local radon measurements were concurrently recorded. The Crete zone is one of the most active seismic zones in Europe, located at the eastern end of the Aegean arc. The influence of meteorological parameters (temperature, atmospheric pressure, humidity, rainfall, and wind speed) on radon emission was integrated into the analysis. To discover complex, non-linear predictive patterns, an XGBoost (Extreme Gradient Boosting) Machine Learning pipeline was deployed(Chen and Guestrin 2016). The deviations of the processed variables indicate that the XGBoost model effectively detects preliminary earthquake signals. Our results demonstrate elevated radon values in the air prior to the arrival or during the occurrence of a significant number of seismic events.
Acknowledgment:: This independent research builds upon foundational concepts initially explored during the author's postgraduate studies at the Hellenic Open University (HOU).
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