Seismic Stability of Karst Sinkholes under high peak ground acceleration: a three dimensional numerical study in Barangay Dontogan, Baguio City, Philippines
Abstract
Abstract Barangay Dontogan, Baguio City, carries the MGB–CAR High Subsidence Susceptibility designation on the basis of 44 validated sinkholes with apertures of 1.0–50.0 m, the largest concentration among the eight barangays of the 129-sinkhole regional inventory. The National Structural Code of the Philippines provides seismic design provisions but no karst-specific criteria for subsurface cavity stability, while the barangay lies in NSCP Zone 4 with a nominal 0.80 g near-source design demand — the NSCP 2015 near-source product Na·Nv = 2.08 applied to the Zone 4 base coefficient Z = 0.40 giving ≈ 0.83 g — anchored to the 1990 Mw 7.8 seismic setting. A 15-scenario primary parametric sweep was conducted at 0.40, 0.60, and 0.80 g across five height-todiameter (H/D) ratios (0.50–2.25), supplemented by discrete-event verification runs at 0.55, 0.65, and 0.75 g for selected H/D configurations (Verification 4, V.4, of the verification protocol; Table S1), modeling a spherical cavity in a two-layer profile—a Mohr–Coulomb sandy/gravelly silt-clay overburden over a Generalized Hoek– Brown jointed Kennon Limestone—under a 20 kPa residential surcharge. The Dynamic Factor of Safety (ΣM_sf) was extracted by the Strength Reduction Method at the post-shaking residual limit-equilibrium state. All five configurations were stable at 0.40 g (ΣM_sf = 1.642–1.683). At 0.60 g the extracted band collapsed to 1.007– 1.210, a 4.95-fold increase in the cross-H/D ΣM_sf spread (0.041 at 0.40 g to 0.203…
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