Fifty-year seismicity analysis of the East Anatolian Fault System (1976–2026): leakage-safe probabilistic forecasting for seismic-risk resilience
Abstract
Abstract Background The East Anatolian Fault System (EAFS) has experienced pronounced changes in seismicity rate, catalog sensitivity, and sequence behavior over five decades. We aimed to characterize this 1976–2026 record and test whether historical seismicity supports reproducible short-term fault-trace probability updates relevant to seismic-risk preparedness. Methods USGS and AFAD catalogs were merged with source provenance, conservative duplicate matching, pre-test magnitude harmonization, and time-varying completeness control. The dense EAF-corridor catalog contained 73 532 events; 5 026 events met the common Mc = 3.4 modeling threshold. These events were associated computationally with 157 source-traceable active-fault geometries, yielding 1 509 869 fault-trace-day observations. The primary outcome was at least one M ≥ 4.0 event associated with a trace during the following seven days. Training ended in 2019, model selection used 2020–2022, 2023 was locked for testing, and 2024–29 July 2026 was retained as a forward holdout. Formal inference used non-overlapping seven-day origins and 28-day moving-block bootstrap confidence intervals. Results The validation-selected History+ETAS logistic forecast achieved PR-AUC values of 0.3479 in 2023 and 0.03261 in the forward holdout, compared with 0.0388 and 0.01127 for a Bayesian historical fault-rate reference. Paired PR-AUC gains were 0.314 (95% CI 0.157–0.443) and 0.0201 (0.00888–0.03844), respectively. However, prespecified…
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