Integrating Seismic and Environmental Hazard Factors into State Land Cadastral Valuation: A Case Study of the Bostandyk District, Almaty
Abstract
The current system of state land cadastral valuation relies predominantly on economic indicators, overlooking natural and environmental hazards in its calculations. Ignoring these local risks severely distorts the objective value of land parcels in complex territo-ries such as the Bostandyk District of Almaty. Determining fair property values re-quires implementing a methodology capable of mathematically accounting for tectonic faults, zones of 9- and 10-point seismic intensity, and environmental discomfort indi-cators. A GIS-based spatial analysis of 62 cadastral blocks, utilizing up-to-date seismic microzoning maps, enabled the calculation of an integrated risk coefficient for each specific location. Mathematical modeling demonstrated the impact of negative exter-nalities on land pricing. Accounting for geological hazards results in a proportional 20–45% reduction in the unit cadastral value for the most vulnerable areas. This new valu-ation paradigm shifts the focus toward urban environmental safety and restores the so-cial equity of the cadastre. Establishing objective, discounted prices creates a natural economic barrier against urban densification in hazardous zones. The developed ana-lytical algorithm is universal and can be scaled to other seismically active regions in Central Asia.
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