Evolutionary overcompensation for climate change
Abstract
Abstract Evolution typically lags behind environmental change. Here, we document the opposite: evolution surging ahead of warming climate, driven by a trade-off between predation risk and climate stress. Euphydryas editha butterflies could either place eggs low, risking lethal temperatures, or high, risking predation by deer. Historical (1990-2002) response to this trade-off was low oviposition, prioritizing protection from predation. This prioritization has reversed; mean distance of eggs from the ground has tripled, cooling them by ~7°C, far exceeding regional warming and exposing eggs to greater predation risk than necessary to eliminate heat risk. The insects have both overcompensated for climate warming and overshot the target of selection. Egg placement behaviour is bimodal with simple inheritance; females either drop to the ground or balance on leaves, with dropping recessive to balancing. Evolution of discontinuous traits tends to miss targets of selection, in this case over-compensating for climate change and protecting against future warming.
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