The influence of climate change on bird distribution patterns and conservation priorities
Abstract
Anthropogenic climate change is worsening its effects on human societies, economies, natural systems, and biological diversity through altered precipitation patterns and increased global temperatures. Tropical islands and areas with high endemism are especially vulnerable, because rising temperatures and changing rainfall are expected to make vast regions unsuitable for many of their narrow-ranged, endemic species potentially causing the disappearance of bird communities. By combining ecological niche models (ENMs) with community-ecology measures of biodiversity, we assess how the geographic distributions of Madagascar's birds may shift and how a changing climate could reshape their assemblages. We modelled the current and projected future distributions of 237 bird species using conventional ecological niche models for common species and ensembles of small models for rare species, projected under six general circulation models and two emissions scenarios across two future time periods, and linked these projections to assemblage-level measures of species richness, spatial beta-diversity, and community body mass. Our projections point to widespread habitat loss: even under the most optimistic assumptions, almost every species is expected to undergo range contraction, with the majority losing more than half of their current extent. Projected ranges contract by an average of 30.7% under SSP245 and 39.9% under SSP585 across two future time horizons (2041-2060, hereafter '2060',…
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