Glacier tourism suitability on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: Future projections in response to climate change
Abstract
Abstract Against the backdrop of climate change, glacier tourism has become an increasingly visible form of nature-based tourism, and its future development is closely connected to plateau ecosystem protection and local livelihoods. This study develops scenario-based projections of glacier tourism suitability on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). The PLUS model was used to generate scenario-conditioned glacier-extent projections, and an XGBoost model with SHAP interpretation was used to assess tourism suitability. The projections indicate that: (1) by 2035, the high-suitability zone is projected to contract by up to 16.00×10⁴ km², while the low-suitability zone is projected to expand by 25.13×10⁴ km²; (2) the modeled retention rate of high-suitability areas is 66.7% under SSP1-2.6 and 59.4% under SSP5-8.5, a difference of 7.3 percentage points; (3) glacier viewing accessibility represents 37.21% of the summed mean absolute SHAP importance, with the strongest modeled relationship occurring within 20 km of glaciers; and (4) multi-scenario overlay identifies continuously suitable zones (9.68%), temporarily suitable zones (9.49%), future suitable zones (0.85%), and unsuitable zones (79.98%). These results extend dynamic, scenario-based assessments of glacier tourism suitability, offering practical references for the sustainable development of global glacier tourism in response to climate change.
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