Spatial Uncertainty Quantification in Wildfire Forecasting for Climate-Resilient Emergency Planning
Abstract
Climate change is intensifying wildfire risks globally, making reliable forecasting critical for adaptation strategies. While machine learning shows promise for wildfire prediction from Earth observation data, current approaches lack uncertainty quantification essential for risk-aware decision making. We present the first systematic analysis of spatial uncertainty in wildfire spread forecasting using multimodal Earth observation inputs. We demonstrate that predictive uncertainty exhibits coherent spatial structure concentrated near fire perimeters. Our novel distance metric reveals high-uncertainty regions form consistent 20-60 meter buffer zones around predicted firelines - directly applicable for emergency planning. Feature attribution identifies vegetation health and fire activity as primary uncertainty drivers. This work enables more robust wildfire management systems supporting communities adapting to increasing fire risk under climate change.
Read the paper
Related studies
- Climate Change Impacts on Marine Ecosystems
- Assisted Gene Flow to Facilitate Local Adaptation to Climate Change
- Climate Change Effects on Plant Disease: Genomes to Ecosystems
- Biodiversity and Climate Change: Integrating Evolutionary and Ecological Responses of Species and Communities
- A systematic review of climate change education: giving children and young people a ‘voice’ and a ‘hand’ in redressing climate change
- Global Monsoon Dynamics and Climate Change
Go deeper in Evidence Hub
Evidence Hub adds a study data sheet (design, sample size, evidence level, key numbers), an AI summary and a chat grounded in the paper's text.